Monte Carlo simulations and forecasting of Radium-226, Thorium-232, and Potassium-40 radioactivity concentrations


Kulahci F., Akozcan S., Gunay O.

JOURNAL OF RADIOANALYTICAL AND NUCLEAR CHEMISTRY, vol.324, no.1, pp.55-70, 2020 (Peer-Reviewed Journal) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 324 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s10967-020-07059-y
  • Journal Name: JOURNAL OF RADIOANALYTICAL AND NUCLEAR CHEMISTRY
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded, Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Analytical Abstracts, Biotechnology Research Abstracts, CAB Abstracts, Chimica, Communication Abstracts, EMBASE, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.55-70
  • Keywords: Monte Carlo, Hypothesis test, Forecasting, Prediction, Model, BLACK-SEA REGION, NATURAL RADIOACTIVITY, RISK ANALYSIS, ARIMA, SOIL, DEMAND, MODELS, VARIABILITY, EMISSION, EXPOSURE

Abstract

This study depicts the radioactivity time series levels of Ra-226, Th-232, and K-40 prospectively by Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs). Three ARIMA stationary stochastic processes are used with measurement records statistical parameter conservation. The MCSs by means of the ARIMA stochastic processes, the statistical characteristics of the radionuclide data are determined and the future simulation forecasts are made for different periods (time between two measurements, i.e. 1 week). Future concentrations of radionuclides with MCS are estimated for the first time. The results obtained on the transport, control and management of radionuclides can also reach similar gains for other different materials.