INVESTMENT ANALYSES USING FUZZY PROBABILITY CONCEPT


KAHRAMAN C., KAYA İ.

TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY, cilt.16, ss.43-57, 2010 (SSCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 16 Konu: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2010
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3846/tede.2010.03
  • Dergi Adı: TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY
  • Sayfa Sayısı: ss.43-57

Özet

In an uncertain economic decision environment, an expert's knowledge about discounting cash flows consists of a lot of vagueness instead of randomness. Cash amounts and interest rates are usually estimated by using educated guesses based on expected values or other statistical techniques to obtain them. Fuzzy numbers can capture the difficulties in estimating these parameters. Fuzziness is one aspect of uncertainty. It is the vagueness found in the definition of a concept or the meaning of a term. Fuzzy memberships represent similarities of objects to imprecisely denned properties, while probabilities convey information about relative frequencies. In this paper, two types of investment analyses are made. First, fuzzy parameters are used in the stochastic investment analysis. Then, another investment analysis is examined by using the concept of probability of a fuzzy event.