Analysing of Tuberculosis in Turkey through SIR, SEIR and BSEIR Mathematical Models


Ucakan Y., Gulen S., KÖKLÜ K.

MATHEMATICAL AND COMPUTER MODELLING OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS, vol.27, no.1, pp.179-202, 2021 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 27 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/13873954.2021.1881560
  • Title of Journal : MATHEMATICAL AND COMPUTER MODELLING OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS
  • Page Numbers: pp.179-202
  • Keywords: Epidemic model, infectious disease, tuberculosis, basic reproduction number, vaccination, A-PRIORI PATHOMETRY, PULSE VACCINATION STRATEGY, GLOBAL STABILITY, EPIDEMIC MODEL, VARYING INFECTIVITY, TRANSMISSION, PROBABILITIES

Abstract

Since mathematical models play a key role in investigating the dynamics of infectious diseases, many mathematical models for these diseases are developed. In this paper, it is aimed to determine the dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) in Turkey, how much it will affect the future and the impact of vaccine therapy on the disease. For this purpose, three mathematical models (SIR, SEIR and BSEIR) in the literature are considered for the case of Turkey. The model parameters are obtained with TB reported data from 2005 to 2015 by using the least square method. The obtained results revealed that the basic reproduction ratio for all three models is less than 1. Moreover, the stability analysis of the models and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are presented and discussed. Finally, the accuracy of results for all three models is compared and the effect of the vaccination rate is discussed.