Analysing of Tuberculosis in Turkey through SIR, SEIR and BSEIR Mathematical Models

Ucakan Y., Gulen S., KÖKLÜ K.

MATHEMATICAL AND COMPUTER MODELLING OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS, cilt.27, sa.1, ss.179-202, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 27 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/13873954.2021.1881560
  • Dergi Adı: MATHEMATICAL AND COMPUTER MODELLING OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Applied Science & Technology Source, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, INSPEC, zbMATH, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.179-202
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Epidemic model, infectious disease, tuberculosis, basic reproduction number, vaccination, A-PRIORI PATHOMETRY, PULSE VACCINATION STRATEGY, GLOBAL STABILITY, EPIDEMIC MODEL, VARYING INFECTIVITY, TRANSMISSION, PROBABILITIES
  • Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Since mathematical models play a key role in investigating the dynamics of infectious diseases, many mathematical models for these diseases are developed. In this paper, it is aimed to determine the dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) in Turkey, how much it will affect the future and the impact of vaccine therapy on the disease. For this purpose, three mathematical models (SIR, SEIR and BSEIR) in the literature are considered for the case of Turkey. The model parameters are obtained with TB reported data from 2005 to 2015 by using the least square method. The obtained results revealed that the basic reproduction ratio for all three models is less than 1. Moreover, the stability analysis of the models and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are presented and discussed. Finally, the accuracy of results for all three models is compared and the effect of the vaccination rate is discussed.