Environmental Claim Reconfiguration Around the EU Anti-Greenwashing Transposition Deadline: Evidence from a 36-Wave EU–UK Digital Retail Panel


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Sağlam M. H., Aygören O.

Sustainability, cilt.18, sa.17, ss.1-30, 2026 (Scopus)

Özet

Environmental claims shape online product evaluation despite limited verifiability. This study examines whether claim architecture changed around the 27 March 2026 EU transposition deadline and whether adjustment varied by certification and baseline seller type. A prospective 36-wave quasi-experimental panel followed 357 EU Ecolabel-certified products and 357 matched comparison products across Amazon marketplaces in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, yielding 96,784 validated product-market-wave observations. Multilingual content analysis measured generic, qualified, and evidence-bearing claims as separate, potentially co-occurring indicators. Triple-difference and event-study models with product-market and capture-wave fixed effects estimated deadline-associated EU–UK changes. Relative to the United Kingdom, generic claims declined by 8.7 percentage points among comparison products and 3.1 points among certified products; qualified and evidence-bearing claims increased in each stratum. Verified EU Ecolabel display rose by 5.1 points among certified products, and generic-claim withdrawal was stronger for marketplace-retail offers. The findings distinguish withdrawal from signal upgrading and extend signalling analysis to sender revision around a transposition deadline. The smaller decline among certified products is consistent with greater evidentiary capacity, while seller-type contrasts indicate heterogeneity by baseline organisational setting. The estimates capture anticipatory marketplace adjustment rather than enactment or enforcement effects.

Environmental claims shape online product evaluation despite limited verifiability. This study examines whether claim architecture changed around the 27 March 2026 EU transposition deadline and whether adjustment varied by certification and baseline seller type. A prospective 36-wave quasi-experimental panel followed 357 EU Ecolabel-certified products and 357 matched comparison products across Amazon marketplaces in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, yielding 96,784 validated product-market-wave observations. Multilingual content analysis measured generic, qualified, and evidence-bearing claims as separate, potentially co-occurring indicators. Triple-difference and event-study models with product-market and capture-wave fixed effects estimated deadline-associated EU–UK changes. Relative to the United Kingdom, generic claims declined by 8.7 percentage points among comparison products and 3.1 points among certified products; qualified and evidence-bearing claims increased in each stratum. Verified EU Ecolabel display rose by 5.1 points among certified products, and generic-claim withdrawal was stronger for marketplace-retail offers. The findings distinguish withdrawal from signal upgrading and extend signalling analysis to sender revision around a transposition deadline. The smaller decline among certified products is consistent with greater evidentiary capacity, while seller-type contrasts indicate heterogeneity by baseline organisational setting. The estimates capture anticipatory marketplace adjustment rather than enactment or enforcement effects.