Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study

Mohammedain S. A., Badran S., Elzouki A. Y., Salim H., Chalaby A., Siddiqui M., ...More

FUTURE VIROLOGY, vol.18, no.15, pp.991-1000, 2023 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 18 Issue: 15
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.2217/fvl-2023-0036
  • Journal Name: FUTURE VIROLOGY
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Chemical Abstracts Core, EMBASE
  • Page Numbers: pp.991-1000
  • Yıldız Technical University Affiliated: No

Abstract

Aim: This study aims to perform an external validation of a recently developed prognostic model for early prediction of the risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Patients & methods/materials: Patients were recruited at their initial diagnosis at two facilities within Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar. 356 adults were included for analysis. Predictors for progression of COVID-19 were all measured at disease onset and first contact with the health system. Results: The C statistic was 83% (95% CI: 78%-87%) and the calibration plot showed that the model was well-calibrated. Conclusion: The published prognostic model for the progression of COVID-19 infection showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration and the model is easy to apply in clinical practice.d