Forecasting Türkiye's primary and sustainable energy demand by 2030 using a system dynamics approach
Utilities Policy, cilt.103, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 103
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.jup.2026.102288
- Dergi Adı: Utilities Policy
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Compendex, EconLit, Geobase, INSPEC
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Energy demand forecasting, Energy modeling, Renewable energy, Scenario analysis, System dynamics, Türkiye
- Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Accurately planning future energy consumption and ensuring security of supply are critical challenges for growing economies. This study develops a long-term simulation framework using a system dynamics approach to forecast Türkiye's primary energy demand and energy production from both renewable and non-renewable sources up to the year 2030. The developed model captures the complex feedback loops and non-linear interactions among key macro-level drivers, including population growth, economic activity, energy intensity, domestic fossil fuel depletion, renewable energy expansion, and import dependency. The structural validity and predictive performance of the simulation model are validated against historical data using standard statistical metrics, demonstrating high forecasting accuracy. To evaluate potential energy pathways, three comprehensive growth scenarios are developed based on alternative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and demographic growth projections. The simulation results indicate that under the baseline trajectory, Türkiye's primary energy demand will increase substantially by 2030. Although domestic renewable energy production exhibits accelerated growth driven by research and development investments, it remains insufficient to offset the expanding demand. Consequently, the national energy deficit is projected to widen across all scenarios, leading to a persistent reliance on foreign energy imports. These findings explicitly demonstrate that current renewable expansion trajectories cannot completely ensure energy independence, highlighting a structural vulnerability. The study offers quantitative insights for infrastructure planning and provides strategic guidance for utilities policy and sustainable energy resource management.