Trend Analysis for Average and Maximum Temperature in Konya Closed Basin, Türkiye Using Classical and Innovative Approaches.

Güroğlu K., Abu Arra A., Şişman E.

13th INTERNATIONAL BILTEK CONGRESS ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, Paris, Fransa, 18 - 21 Aralık 2025, ss.14-15, (Özet Bildiri)

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Özet Bildiri
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Paris
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Fransa
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.14-15
  • Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Climate change, which is constantly reshaping itself based on trends in meteorological and hydrological variables, brings with it numerous problems. These include irregularities in precipitation patterns, depletion of groundwater and surface water resources, and/or unexpected locational and temporal variations in these resources, disruption of ecological balance, floods, desertification, drought, erosion, and fires. To predict the potential risks and magnitudes that may arise from climate change and to develop solutions to potential problems, it is crucial to define and interpret climate variable trends in detail. Conventional Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's slope (SS) trend analysis methods can only test the direction and magnitude of monotonic trends to a limited extent under certain statistical assumptions. However, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method and its numerous derivatives enable the detailed determination of both monotonic and non-monotonic trends. Recently proposed Frequency ITA (F-ITA) and Frequency Differential Length ITA (FDL-ITA) approaches can also identify the frequencies and probabilities of additional trend patterns. In this way, changes in the frequency of trend-related events, in other words, regime changes, events that classical approaches cannot detect and that the ITA methodology cannot measure, can be evaluated using objective numerical criteria. In this study, average temperature and maximum temperature trends measured at selected Cihanbeyli, Beyşehir, Karaman ve Niğde stations in the Konya Closed Basin, one of Türkiye's major basins, were analyzed and interpreted using classical and innovative methodologies. Furthermore, regime changes resulting from climate change were analyzed and interpreted using a synthesis of the recently presented F-ITA and FDL-ITA methodologies. The results showed an increasing trend in both maximum and average temperatures across traditional and innovative trend approaches, ensuring more effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The maximum SS was at Cihanbeyli station with SS 0.6 ̊ C/10 years and an increasing trend at a 99% confidence level for the monthly maximum temperature.