Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Turkish Journal of Agricultural Economics, cilt.30, sa.1, ss.1-16, 2024 (Scopus)
Purpose: In today's world, tensions and conflicts in international relations can have profound effects on the global economy. The COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020 and the subsequent Russia-Ukraine war have particularly led to adverse impacts on a global scale, especially through commodity markets. In this context, the aim of the study is to investigate the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Grain Corridor agreement on commodity markets. Design/Methodology/Approach: In line with this objective, corn, wheat, and oil prices traded in Turkey and the European Union markets have been analyzed using GARCH and DCC-GARCH models. In the analysis, daily data sets were used, and for the European Union market, data from a long period between 01.01.2008 and 10.05.2023 were obtained, while data for the Turkish market was limited to the period between 02.08.2019 and 10.05.2023 due t o data access difficulties. Findings: Work indicates that the war in question has led to a global food security issue by affecting grain supply chains worldwide. According to the analysis results, it is observed that there have been sudden price fluctuations in commodity markets due to production and supply disruptions during the war period. Price increases and fluctuations have been observed in both markets, but after the signing of the Grain Corridor agreement, it is noted that price fluctuations have relatively subsided, and commodity prices have started to decline. Additionally, it is found that the correlation between variables has diverged during the war period. These findings reveal how sensitive commodity markets are to such geopolitical events and how the responses of different commodity types can vary. It is believed that this study could contribute to the implementation of policy measures against similar crisis situations and efforts to enhance global food security.