Demirci A., Özgür P., Terkeş M., Dagal I., Cali U.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, cilt.1, sa.1, ss.1-28, 2026 (Scopus)
-
Yayın Türü:
Makale / Tam Makale
-
Cilt numarası:
1
Sayı:
1
-
Basım Tarihi:
2026
-
Doi Numarası:
10.1038/s41598-026-65280-3
-
Dergi Adı:
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
-
Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler:
Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biological Science Database (ProQuest), Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest), Scopus, BIOSIS, Chemical Abstracts Core, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Directory of Open Access Journals, Zoological Record
-
Sayfa Sayıları:
ss.1-28
-
Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu:
AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
-
Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli:
Evet
Özet
Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV)-powered water pumping systems (WPS) are increasingly used for agricultural irrigation, yet their reliability is governed not only by annual energy balance but also by the timing of water withdrawal relative to solar availability and hydraulic storage recovery. This study develops a reliability-constrained simulation–optimization framework for a standalone PV water pumping system (PVWPS) in Konya, Türkiye, and evaluates four equal-daily-volume irrigation demand topologies: uniform, morning-only, split morning–evening, and greenhouse-pulsed demand. To address the stochastic and mixed-integer nature of the sizing problem, the analysis validates the metaheuristic search using an enumeration-refined design-space check, distinguishes nominal boundary designs from uncertainty-aware margin designs, and adds sensitivity analyses for seasonal demand redistribution, groundwater-head increase, evaporation, pump-efficiency degradation, transient power loss, and pulse-window flow adequacy. Enumeration-refined nominal designs satisfy the deterministic reliability target, with optimal PV capacities between 2.52 and 2.70 kW and hydraulic storage volumes between 27.10 and 29.80 m
3
. Relative to uniform demand, the morning-only, split, and greenhouse-pulsed profiles reduce equivalent shortage duration by approximately 72%, 54%, and 58%, respectively, while cost-of-water differences remain moderate. Monte Carlo testing shows that deterministic just-feasible designs are sensitive to demand uncertainty; tightening the nominal LLP target from 0.010 to 0.008 reduces the mean Monte Carlo LLP below 0.010 for all scenarios, but does not guarantee strict high-percentile chance-constrained feasibility. The results indicate that irrigation timing is an important operational co-design factor for hydraulic storage and shortage exposure, while practical deployment requires explicit robustness margins when groundwater drawdown, uncovered storage evaporation, pump degradation, or sub-hourly transients are expected.