MULTI-SCALE ANALYSIS OF PROPAGATION AMONG METEOROLOGICAL, AGRICULTURAL, AND HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS: THE CASE OF THE KONYA CLOSED BASIN

7 th INTERNATIONAL ISTANBUL CURRENT SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH CONGRESS, İstanbul, Türkiye, 21 - 22 Ağustos 2025, cilt.1, ss.434, (Özet Bildiri)

Hydrological drought events are generally preceded by meteorological and agricultural

drought processes. Based on this premise, a physically driven interaction exists, and there is a

specific time lag (propagation) between hydrological drought and its meteorological and

agricultural counterparts. These transitional cycles among meteorological, agricultural, and

hydrological droughts can vary significantly across years, at different temporal scales, and

seasonally by months. A review of existing studies reveals that simultaneous and multi-scale

analyses of the widely acknowledged meteorological–agricultural–hydrological drought chain

are rarely conducted. Most studies independently compute drought indices (such as

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)), often

overlooking the time lag, physical linkages, and cascading effects between these indices. This

represents a critical gap in achieving integrated drought risk management and effective early

warning systems. One of the key gaps in the literature is the lack of systematic investigation

into the propagation time and seasonal variations of the physical processes connecting these

drought categories. The aim of this study is to analyze the propagation time and physical

interactions among meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought events through a

multi-scale approach, identify seasonal differences, and interpret these findings in the context

of integrated drought risk management and effective early warning systems. For this purpose,

SPI and SDI values were calculated at different time scales using data from a selected

meteorological station and a streamflow gauging station located in Türkiye’s Konya Closed

Basin. Correlation analysis was applied to identify the time lags between SPI and SDI. The

results indicated that, at shorter time scales, hydrological droughts typically follow

meteorological droughts with lags of a few months, while at longer time scales, these lags are

influenced by basin characteristics and are substantially dependent on hydrological processes.