EVALUATING OPTIMAL TEMPORAL PERIODS FOR CITY-BASED DROUGHT ANALYSIS: VALIDATING WMO'S YEAR PERIOD AND EXPLORING ACCEPTABLE TIME PERIOD


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Öğsüz E., Arra A. A., Birpinar M. E., Gazioğlu Ş. A., Şişman E.

11th INTERNATIONAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, Lisbon, Portekiz, 20 - 22 Ocak 2025, ss.249-250, (Özet Bildiri)

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Özet Bildiri
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Lisbon
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Portekiz
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.249-250
  • Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Drought, a multifaceted and critical natural hazard occurring in various climates, exerts detrimental effects on all aspects of life, including water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystems. The consequences of water scarcity are prevalent in numerous regions globally, exacerbated by drought conditions. Thorough and precise drought assessment, monitoring, and mapping are crucial for effective water and drought management methods, especially in areas with data limitations and water scarcity issues. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), a widely recognized standardized drought index, relies only on precipitation data across several time scales, underscoring the importance of the precision, consistency, and continuity of this data. Since many cities and regions, especially developing countries, do not have welldistributed observation gauges, these in-situ gauges may not meet the recommended time period determined by the Meteorological Organization (WMO) for drought studies. This issue leads to data availability problems and insufficient and inaccurate drought evaluation. To address and fill this gap and limitation, precipitation data from satellite and reanalysis sources such as ERA5-Land and IMERG NASA can be used. The main objective of this research is to 1) validate and ensure the efficiency of the time period determined by WMO of 20 – 30 years as an ideal period; 2) evaluate and validate the shorter time period (Acceptable Time Period). The evaluation process was carried out using statistical metrics and the innovative drought classification matrix (IDCM). Kocaeli station from Kocaeli Province, in Türkiye, is selected as an application and case study. The results will contribute to more effective water resource and drought management strategies. This study has a huge contribution to the academic field, including validating the time period recommended by the WMO and the acceptable time period, leading to a more reliable drought evaluation using this period.