STATISTICAL STUDY OF EARTH MAGNETOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES CAUSED BY INTENSE SOLAR PLASMA


Erdağ H. Ş., Can Z.

7th International Researchers, Statisticians, and Young Statisticians Congress, İstanbul, Turkey, 2 - 05 November 2023, pp.5

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Summary Text
  • City: İstanbul
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.5
  • Yıldız Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In the Sun, solar activities increase and decrease in

11-year cycles. Solar events and processes can lead to

the ejection of plasma material into space, and the

ejections of substantial mass from one region are

referred to as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). When

these mass ejections move through space and reach

Earth, they affect the Earth's magnetic field, causing

significant disturbances known as geomagnetic storms.

If there are two consecutive CMEs from the Sun and

they merge before reaching Earth, it becomes a

cannibal mass ejection. It impacts Earth as a plasma

with different densities and velocities than a typical

ejection. In this study, a multiple linear regression

model was created to explain the disturbance in the

Earth's magnetic field due to a cannibal mass ejection

occurring during the 25th solar cycle, which is the

current solar cycle. The independent variables in the

model are the speed of the cannibal mass ejection in

space and the proton density, while the dependent

variable is the Dst (Disturbance Storm Time) index,

which indicates the amount of disturbance in the

magnetic field. The main goal is to understand the

primary factors of geomagnetic storms through data

science since these storms can pose significant risks to

satellites, space missions, and life on Earth. The results

of the regression model are compared to the

consistency of astrophysical processes to discuss the

reality of storm analysis.