What Do The New Turkish GDP Series Imply For Economists?

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Sunal S., Çakmak Şahin S.

Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, sa.650, ss.29-50, 2019 (Hakemli Dergi)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2019
  • Dergi Adı: Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.29-50
  • Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

In December 2016 TURKSTAT made a revision in national accounts system and announced the new 2009-based GDP series in accordance with ESA-2010. Accordingly all OECD countries, along with many others, adapted their national accounts system to the new method. While the magnitude of the changes in the GDP series were limited in all other countries, the revision conducted on the Turkish GDP series happened to be massive. With this dimension the revision process held by TURKSTAT diverges from other examples. Consequently the new series raised more questions than they answered. As the new series were announced economists were puzzled by the changing composition and growth rates of sectoral output, the broken link between formerly related indicators such as industrial output index and GDP. In this study we analyze the effects of the revision on GDP figures through growth rates, saving rates, investment levels, sectoral composition of economic activity and productivity. Few suggestions are also listed for economists who would conduct studies on Turkish economy in overcoming the problems caused by the transition to new series.

In December 2016 TURKSTAT made a revision in national accounts system and announced the new 2009-based GDP series in accordance with ESA-2010. Accordingly all OECD countries, along with many others, adapted their national accounts system to the new method. While the magnitude of the changes in the GDP series were limited in all other countries, the revision conducted on the Turkish GDP series happened to be massive. With this dimension the revision process held by TURKSTAT diverges from other examples. Consequently the new series raised more questions than they answered. As the new series were announced economists were puzzled by the changing composition and growth rates of sectoral output, the broken link between formerly related indicators such as industrial output index and GDP. In this study we analyze the effects of the revision on GDP figures through growth rates, saving rates, investment levels, sectoral composition of economic activity and productivity. Few suggestions are also listed for economists who would conduct studies on Turkish economy in overcoming the problems caused by the transition to new series.