APPLICATION OF FREQUENCY INNOVATIVE TREND ANALYSIS (F-ITA) FOR STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI): A CASE STUDY OF KOCAELI USING ERA5-LAND, NASA DATA, AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS

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Birpinar M. E., Arra A. A., Şişman E.

EURO ASIA 12th. INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON APPLIED SCIENCES, Mingachevir, Azerbaycan, 17 - 18 Şubat 2025, ss.464, (Özet Bildiri)

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Özet Bildiri
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Mingachevir
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Azerbaycan
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.464
  • Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Drought trend and frequency analyses are essential and necessary for adaptation to climate change,

protection and management of water resources, drought management, and drought mitigation planning.

Using trend analyses, more effective water management policies can be developed, and resilience to

drought events can be increased in society. Drought trends are critical for the sustainable management

of water resources, the determination of long-term strategies, and the formation of policies. Knowledge

of changes in drought frequencies is also critical for risk management and emergency planning. When

we look at the applications, drought trends are mostly used for long-term planning to predict climate

change's effects and form policies. In contrast, drought frequencies and changes are preferred for

shorter-term decisions, crisis management, and emergency preparations. In this research, drought trends

and frequency changes for Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated using ERA 5 Land

reanalysis and IMERG NASA data at the nearest grid point and ground observation for a station within

the borders of Kocaeli province were examined and evaluated with the help of Frequency Innovative

Trend Analysis methodology (F-ITA). The analysis results showed that drought risks have increased in

Kocaeli province in recent years, the frequency of extreme drought events has also increased, and

climate change affects drought events. For Kocaeli to be minimally affected by drought events that will

occur due to climate change, the need for monitoring and determining drought hazards and risks,

creating policies for the management of these risks, identifying and creating the requirements for rapid

and effective intervention mechanisms such as early warning systems, conducting projection studies on

future drought events, and similar comprehensive research that will provide benefits is increasing day

by day.