Metaheuristic-Driven Linear Predictive Modelling of Egypt’s Energy Consumption and Energy-Related Cumulative CO2 Emissions
International Journal of Energy Research, cilt.2026, sa.1, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 2026 Sayı: 1
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1155/er/9936237
- Dergi Adı: International Journal of Energy Research
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Aerospace Database, Compendex, Environment Index, INSPEC, Directory of Open Access Journals, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest), Engineering Source (EBSCO), Materials Science & Engineering Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: cumulative CO2 emissions, energy consumption, energy policy, environmental effects, metaheuristic-based predictive modeling
- Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Globally, increasing energy demand continues to drive up carbon emissions due to dependence on fossil fuels. Countries are faced with the dual challenge of securing an energy supply to support economic growth, while also ensuring that this supply is provided in an environmentally sustainable way. Egypt is a dominant economic force in the Middle East and Africa, and the country faces a critical balancing act between electricity consumption and emissions. In this direction, the study presents an analytical framework to project Egypt’s annual energy consumption and cumulative CO2 emissions through 2035. To this end, three state-of-the-art metaheuristic algorithms, including artificial rabbits optimization (ARO), chimp optimization algorithm (ChOA), and sea-horse optimizer (SHO), are used for optimizing the linear prediction model paramaters. The results demonstrate that ARO provides the most accurate predictions for energy consumption, while ChOA outperforms the other algorithms in forecasting cumulative CO2 emissions. Consequently, it is projected that the energy consumption in Egypt will reach 4.11 times greater for ARO and 4.88 times greater for SHO by the year 2035. Conversely, the cumulative CO2 emission value in Egypt is projected to reach 1.87 times higher for the ChOA and 1.78 times higher for the SHO, which are the most successful algorithms in the testing stage of CO2 emission prediction. The results indicate that there will be substantial increases in energy consumption and energy sector-related cumulative CO2 emissions in the country over the next few years. Egypt must progress in the development of renewable energy sources with a view to reducing its reliance on fossil fuels and curbing rising energy consumption.