Improving cmip6 downscaled precipitation through bias correction: a station-level assessment in the western black sea region

11th INTERNATIONAL CUKUROVA AGRICULTURE AND VETERINARY CONGRESS, Adana, Türkiye, 27 - 28 Aralık 2025, ss.878-886, (Tam Metin Bildiri)

When climate change is discussed, mitigation and adaptation are the two most emphasized

themes. While mitigation efforts focus on monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and

implementing regulatory measures, adaptation strategies and various action plans are developed

to address the climate change impacts that these increasing emissions have caused and will

continue to cause. The most critical and frequently asked question in this context is how fast

and to what extent the climate will change in temporal and spatial terms. To this end, many

institutions, universities, researchers, and experts are attempting to estimate the potential future

values of various climate variables under various climate scenarios using global circulation

models with a specific resolution. Given their resolution and internal errors, these model outputs

cannot be directly used in regional studies and can only serve as preliminary inputs. Therefore,

it is necessary to eliminate systematic errors and correct biases in the model outputs. This study

addresses the biases in precipitation estimates of different global circulation models for the

coastal region of the Western Black Sea Basin. The results show that significant improvements

in monthly precipitation estimates can be achieved after bias correction. Examining the

systematic errors in global model outputs obtained under climate change scenarios and

improving precipitation estimates provides a strong foundation for predicting potential future

drought events and ensuring the sustainability of agricultural and environmental practices.