The uncertainty analysis for yield, price and gross income in the walnut growing in Turkey (1978-1998)


Akcay Y., Cicek A., Uzunoz M. , Sayili M.

4th International Walnut Symposium, Bordeaux, Fransa, 12 - 16 Eylül 1999, ss.573-583

Özet

Walnut has important place in the nuts production in Turkey. Yield and price fluctuations sourcing from natural characteristic of agriculture have caused to the instabilities. The intensity of the fluctuations have become an important uncertainty source for farmers. On account of this, farmers have confronted risk and uncertainty in the decision and investment for the future. The main goal of the study is the determination of the yield, price and gross income uncertainty in the interval of 1978 and 1998 of walnut growing in Turkey. Besides, in the study, the production amount, planted area, export-import of walnut for Turkey and the world were tried to investigate. In the time series analysis, logaritmic and quadratic functions were used.