Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
9. INTERNATIONAL ANKARA MULTIDISCIPLINARY STUDIES CONGRESS, Ankara, Türkiye, 13 - 14 Kasım 2025, cilt.1, ss.912-922, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
With increasing impacts of climate change, the effects on hydraulic structures are becoming more pronounced, leading to significant consequences for structural safety, durability, and operational efficiency. The accurate and reliable generation of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, which are used in the design and operation of hydraulic structures, urban drainage systems, and other engineering structures, is crucial. It is widely accepted in literature that at least 30 years of measured data are needed for robust analyses. These analyses are based on the assumption of stationarity, which assumes that the statistical properties of extreme precipitation remain constant over time. This assumption has been used as a standard method for many years. Recent studies have demonstrated that this assumption is no longer valid. Particularly since the 1990s, due to the impact of climate change, extreme precipitation patterns have undergone significant changes in terms of frequency and intensity. In this study, the potential effects of climate change on extreme precipitation characteristics were investigated specifically for the city of Trabzon, Türkiye, which has been frequently affected by severe flood events in recent years. In this study, using 60 years of measurement data from 14 different standard precipitation periods (5, 10, 15, and 30 minutes; 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 18, and 24 hours) reliably recorded over the 66 years between 1957 and 2022, IDF curves were generated separately for the periods 1957- 2020, 1957-1989, and 1990-2020, and temporal changes were evaluated. Comparing the results between the first period (1957-1989) and the last period (1990-2020), it was determined that precipitation intensities increased by up to 140%. Short-term (5–15 minutes) rainfall intensities increased by 10% to 42%, while longer-term (6–12 hours) rainfall increased by 25% to 115%.