IOCENS 2021 - International Online Conferences on Engineering and Natural Sciences 2021, Gümüşhane, Turkey, 5 - 07 July 2021, pp.1-10
In this study, the wind energy potential of wind turbines with three different power capacities is analyzed using the Weibull probability density function. The installed power of the wind turbines is 1 MW, 3 MW and 5 MW, and the tower heights are 65 meters, 95 meters and 120 meters, respectively. The moment, energy pattern factor, and modified maximum likelihood methods have been used to calculate the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull probability density function. Tower-height wind speeds of wind turbines are modeled by these methods. It is also aimed to determine the most consistent mathematical method by performing R2 and RMSE error analysis in these models. In addition, capacity factors for wind turbines are calculated and the electrical energy potential that can be produced is analyzed. The Terkos region of Istanbul, Turkey is chosen for the case study.
The results show that the lowest R2 and RMSE error rates are obtained with the modified maximum likelihood method. In addition, the capacity factors and annual electrical energy production potentials calculated by moment, energy pattern factor, and modified maximum likelihood methods gave close results for the same wind turbine. The capacity factors of 1 MW, 3 MW and 5 MW wind turbines to be installed in the study region have been calculated as approximately 32%, 33%, and 37%, respectively. It is also concluded that the wind turbine with higher installed power will contain the best capacity factor. The electrical energy generation potentials of 1 MW, 3 MW and 5 MW wind turbines have also been estimated as approximately 2,800 MWh, 8,700 MWh and 16,300 MWh, respectively.
Keywords: Wind Turbine, Electrical Energy, Weibull Distribution, Capacity Factor