TESTING THE FISCAL THEORY OF THE PRICE LEVEL IN TÜRKIYE BY USING STRUCTURAL BALANCE DATA

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Masatçı K., Oktayer A.

ROMANIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING, vol.25, no.4, pp.74-95, 2022 (SSCI)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 25 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Journal Name: ROMANIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, EconLit
  • Page Numbers: pp.74-95
  • Yıldız Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

The fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) emphasizes the distinction between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes and claims that if non-Ricardian regime prevails in an economy, the price level will be pinned down by fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. To determine the dominant regime in Türkiye we use quarterly fiscal data (primary balance and government debt) and run bivariate VAR analysis. Additionally, we subdivide primary surplus into its components as structural and cyclical balance data and conduct trivariate VAR analysis. The results strictly show that the non-Ricardian regime prevails in the period 1996-2005. However, for the period 2006-2019, the bivariate results show that the Ricardian regime is dominant, while the trivariate model findings show that the government structurally follows non-Ricardian policies.