Environmental pollution, hydropower and nuclear energy generation before and after catastrophe: Bathtub-Weibull curve and MS-VECM methods


BİLDİRİCİ M. E.

NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM, 2020 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume:
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.1111/1477-8947.12194
  • Journal Name: NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, Scopus, Academic Search Premier, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, PASCAL, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Environment Index, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, Greenfile, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database
  • Keywords: Bathtub-Weibull curve, CO2 emissions, economic growth, hydropower energy production, MSVECM, AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME-SERIES, ECONOMIC-GROWTH EVIDENCE, ELECTRICITY-GENERATION, RENEWABLE ENERGY, CONSUMPTION, COINTEGRATION, DEMAND

Abstract

In this paper, the life span of hydro and nuclear energy generations and the relationship between hydro and nuclear energy generations, environmental pollution, and economic growth were investigated for Japan covering the period of 1960-2018 by employing the Bathtub-Weibull curve and Markov switching-vector error correcting (MSVEC) method, respectively. According to the Bathtub-Weibull curve analysis, a rising failure rate for nuclear energy was found, indicating that the life of nuclear energy has expired, but a decreasing failure rate for hydroelectric energy has been detected. Then two different MSVEC models were used. The MSVEC method, unlike traditional approaches, determines the relationship between variables under different regimes. The results of MSVEC methods indicate three important points. First, regime-dependent asymmetry and regime changes are crucial for policy recommendations. Second, the shocks to hydropower and nuclear energy generations cause temporary deviations from the long-run growth path in both regimes. Lastly, the increase in hydropower generation leads to a decrease in environmental pollution and an increase in GDP, and an increase in nuclear power generation increases pollution and growth in both regimes.