Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
3. Bilsel International Truva Scientific Researches And Innovation Congress, Çanakkale, Türkiye, 25 - 26 Mayıs 2024, ss.640-653
The accurate forecasting of power demand is of paramount importance for the efficient planning and operation of power systems. Exponential smoothing, a widely adopted technique, has been extensively utilised for short-term power demand forecasting due to its simplicity and effectiveness. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the application of exponential smoothing models for power demand forecasting. The efficacy of various exponential smoothing methods, including simple exponential smoothing, Holt's linear trend method, and Holt-Winters' seasonal method, is evaluated using realworld power demand data. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the exponential smoothing approach in capturing the key trends and seasonal patterns inherent in electricity demand, thereby leading to accurate forecasts. Additionally, the paper discusses the implementation considerations, sensitivity analysis, and practical implications of the proposed methodology. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the applicability and effectiveness of exponential smoothing techniques in the context of power demand forecasting, which is crucial for the efficient planning and operation of power systems.