GIS-BASED EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT OF ISTANBUL USING AHP WITH INTEGRATED SWOT AND PESTEL FRAMEWORKS
6TH INTERNATIONAL THALES CONGRESS ON LIFE, ENGINEERING, ARCHITECTURE AND MATHEMATICS, Cairo, Mısır, 22 - 24 Ocak 2026, ss.269-279, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
- Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
- Basıldığı Şehir: Cairo
- Basıldığı Ülke: Mısır
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.269-279
- Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Metropolitan areas with seismic activity are vulnerable due to their high population density, geologicalstructure, and eruptions. Istanbul, one of Europe's densely populated metropolises, is under significant earthquake risk due to its topographic, geomorphological, hydrological, and land-use characteristics. The lack of this risk is critical for planning and risk reduction. The examination of earthquake zones in large metropolitan areas involves a complex structure involving the analysis of numerous spatial parameters. Analyses based on a single parameter are insufficient for drawing conclusions and making interpretations. Therefore, a combination of these parameters is obtained using specific Multi-Criteria
Decision Making (MCDM) treatments. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) resulting from these weightings visually structure map production. In this study, the geo-environmental distribution of Istanbul is analyzed using the AHP approach in conjunction with GIS. Seven fundamental spatial parameter study degree, drainage density, annual rainfall, geomorphology, fault density, lithology, and land use—are analyzed and standardized. Separate thematic maps are created for each parameter. Using the weighted AHP approach of the surveying engineers' expert sector, the region with high sensitivity to district performance is determined using quantitative inputs in this regard. Since quantitative evaluations are most common in the literature, the outputs are also addressed using qualitative methods.This resulted in a more interpretable outcome for decision-makers. The evaluation is carried out using SWOT and PESTEL analysis frameworks from quantitative methods. SWOT analysis is used as a tool to systematically reveal the strengths and weaknesses, pportunities, and threats of earthquake risk. PESTEL frameworks offer a holistic approach to risk management in natural disaster systems, considering political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal dimensions. This study offers regionally based, spatial overview of the geoenvironmental impact of earthquakes in Istanbul and creates GIS-based analyses using collective methods.